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And by the time you have finish reading this article, you should have a very good idea about how the management operating, think about things. We will be covering: That is a sizable expiry and for shareholders, this is probably something to be concerned about.
If this is an expiry by some of the local office REITs, shareholders are less concerned because they have a good idea about the leasing climate in Singapore and Hong Kong. USA leasing presents a different culture, and when you have a REIT with properties there, you do not know if they can execute well.
Even before we can plant that question, management updated that they have been negotiating with the key tenants Hyundai Motor Financials and Jones Day mainly for the past year. They have their fingers crossed that there will be some updates in the Q4 result.
Manulife is very familiar with this concept. The management was rather cautious about having a large tenant base that is based upon co-working tenants. They were also quick to note that, while co-working space seemed new to the region due to the rise of WeWork, this concept have been more prevalent in the western world much longer.
They would rather work with stronger, more established players. If a co-working tenant are willing to lease for 5 to 7 years, Manulife will consider exploring such opportunities this is still a tad shorter than the typical 5 to 10 years of leases.
Due to right sizing the days of large corporate offices might not be coming back. One interesting thing is that the valuation of the property is affected by the tenant mix. One main reason is that the leases of these co-working space tenants are rather short. The CFO explained that the valuation of a building is affected by general vacancy, and credit loss.
So if you have less established tenants with shorter credit history like the co-working space companies, this affects your valuation. While a landlord like Manulife could charge them a higher rent, there are a fair bit of tenant incentives given for them to signed on as well, so that would negate the higher rental revenue.
Your CAP rate could go up but they are not going to stay with you for a longer time and secondly, you will be investing in more capital upfront to make the space look good for them, which will impact your cash flow in the early years, with much less cash flow in the latter years.
How come the government tenant at Penn is tied to a long lease, yet the lease do not come with any rental escalation?
I think the worry is, if inflation accelerates, the company will incur a large opportunity cost on a long rental lease. Secondly, when the debt is refinance to a higher interest rate, there are not much chance for the rent to be revised upwards.
Penn has a WALE of 6. The management have this answer for Penn: If you have a government agency as a tenant, their credit is so high that the government agency do not have to pay rental escalation.
That comes across as very weird for me and I am not going to dispute that claim. The CFO did provide more color to the nature of the lease.
This means that a base level of expenses are identify, which is typically the annual expenses of the prior year. Manulife would pay that base year of expenses. For subsequent years, if the expenses rises with inflation above this base year expenses, these expenses would be recovered from the tenant.
In this way, if expenses go up with inflation, Manulife is protected. They will continue to earn that cap rate spread. They would have to depend on mid term rent review. Triple Net Lease or Net Lease: As you can see recoveries income is a fair bit. If we take this out, the revenue would be lower, closer to the net rental income.
Thus the margins would be higher. The Appeal of the Flow Through of Rental Escalation to Net Rental Income The advantage that I see with so much cost recovery, as explained in the previous section is that all the rental escalation, and expense recovery will flow from the top line to the bottom line.
This creates some operating leverage, allowing the distributable income to grow. However, I do have a concern how long WALE net lease will fair in a rising interest rate environment, versus shorter tenant lease properties. And in my previous articleI did some sensitivity analysis what would happen in some realistically pessimistic rising interest environment.
I asked the management this question and the CFO replied that the nature of these cost recovery and rental escalation would alleviate that. As the gross rent will grow by a fixed amount over time, but your debt is fixed.In my stock portfolio tracker, you will observe that the Auto Price column shows daily end of day Singapore stock share price.
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